Saturday, January 10, 2009

The real cause of the financial crisis

-- An MIT Blackjack Team perspective

The mathematics of probability that govern the trade-offs of risk and reward are fundamentally counter-intuitive.

The reason that societies ban pyramid schemes outright, instead of relying on the market to make them unprofitable, is that most people trust their intuition, and their intuition leads them astray. If you were to wait for the market to run its course on a pyramid scheme, the losses could devastate a whole country, as Albanians found out a few years ago.

In our days of outwitting casinos around the world, we have come across many people who thought that they also had a great system, but were in fact compulsive gamblers who eventually lost everything. Among the false systems that intuitively feel right, there is none as insidious and deadly as the Martingale, where a player doubles his bet after every loss.

The Martingale system works as follows: suppose you need an extra $100. You go down to your nearest casino, and bet $100 on a hand of blackjack, or on any other almost 50/50 proposition. Should you win right away, you have reached your goal and gotten your money. Now if you lose, you bet $200. If you win the second bet, you're up $100 over all and once again successful. But a little more than one out of four times you'll lose both, and end up down $300. In that event you simply bet $400. If you lose again you bet $800, and you just keep doubling your bet until you win once. Clearly you have to win at least once eventually, and with this system you end up with your $100 profit even if you start out losing for a while. If you're willing to bet up to ten times for instance, your chance of losing all ten bets is close to one in a thousand. That means that with a probability of almost 99.9%, you will win one of those ten bets, and therefore walk away with your $100.

Of course there's a catch that few people notice. When the unlikely one in a thousand event happens and you do lose ten in a row, the actual amount that you've lost is over $100,000, all risked to win a mere hundred bucks. You might not have any way of doubling up again. You might even need some sort of bailout.

In the world of investments, there are many ways more subtle than the Martingale to guarantee a better return over a period of months, years, and even decades, at the cost of certain ruin way down the road. Let's say for instance that you're managing a hedge fund which invests in stocks. Your strategy of sound fundamental analysis is fairly well understood. You have found that you can generate an average return of 6% per year, and so can most of your equally qualified competitors who have access to the same talent pool and knowledge base as you do. But then one of your competitors realizes that he can automatically increase his return to 9% by selling something called "out of the money puts" on the market. This means that the competitor's fund essentially sells insurance against the market crashing dramatically. In normal times his fund will gain the premium from selling this insurance which boosts his returns. However, in the rare event of an extreme market crash his investors will lose everything. This form of Martingale can be easily tuned to work for various time periods with various chances of collapse.

When investors see a fund manager generate a higher return that his competitors, they will move their money into that fund and out of the other ones. And money managers are rewarded based on the size of their fund, or the level of returns. The managers do not risk their own money. If they can provide a bigger gain for a few years, they win everything. They might even be lucky enough to be retired by the time their investors are paying the piper. The managers who have the discipline to understand and avoid the Martingale tricks will not be able to compete on the basis of their returns over a few years, and will eventually lose their funds and their jobs.

But many people managing large funds are men and women of integrity. They will not willingly expose their investors to total loss in order to line their own pockets with cash. Yet the system as it presently works does not allow them to compete without some kind of trade-off of long term risk versus short term reward. The
solution that they usually flock to is to create such a complex Martingale system that they themselves cannot understand the longer term risk implications. As long as the mathematical analysis of the risk of ruin lies beyond the understanding of the CEOs, the money managing organizations can stay competitive by employing their latest version of a return-boosting Martingale, without admitting to themselves or to others that they have been peer-pressured into the financial equivalent of selling their soul to the Devil.

In the 80's the emerging Martingales were called junk bonds and LBO's. In more recent times they are known as mortgage backed securities and
credit default swaps. You can regulate mortgages half to death and try to control what kind of risks various kinds of investment organizations are legally allowed to take. You can even forbid short selling and ban golden parachutes. But as long as managers are paid a percentage for managing other people's money, they will compete with each other based on the returns they appear to generate. The pressure to create out-sized returns will eventually force them to invent the latest complex scheme which will have the same effect: eventually the investors lose it all. Complex financial structures will once again emerge that even the best professional investors cannot fully understand. People will always move their money into the places that give the best return over a few years, no matter how many times they are warned with the disclaimer that "past performance is no indication of future returns." And eventually the crisis that results will reach global dimensions beyond the means of a government bailout, especially if part of the risk managing strategy becomes counting on bailouts happening every decade or so.

The only
solution is to forbid money management as we know it. We could certainly have people like Warren Buffet manage investors' money
alongside their own, with no additional percent-based compensation beyond their own investment gains. But we must remove the incentive to create Martingales, and protect people from their own intuitive desire to move their money into the funds which generate out-sized returns, without understanding the long term risks which create them.

In our globalized free market world, almost everyone is ultimately an investor, whether by owning a house or merely holding a job in a company which depends on access to capital. The scope of the current bailout has reached the point of
real danger. We must fix the underlying problem before doubling down again as a society, or risk going the way of Albania.

300 comments:

  1. Very interesting! By the way, do you invest in stock market?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes. My holdings include:

    AAPL AMS ARO BITI BRK.A CHKE EEF EWZ EZEN GHM GOOG ISNS MTA TRA TRLG TSP WSTG

    ReplyDelete
  3. Unfortunately, the market implosion is more a result of fraud, corruption and incompetence than a Martingale system.

    I am a 2nd generation mortgage and real estate broker in "Silicon Vally", CA. I closed my office in Jan 2004 because fraud became the industry standard. As you state this was the system. The liability was not on the lender; it was on the loan originators, investors and now taxpayers.

    I was contractually liable for the actions of my clients; loan fraud / fiduciary breach.

    I don't know why all the deceived borrowers do not go after their mortgage and or real estate brokers. As fiduciaries we were required to be well informed of market conditions, provide full material disclosures to all parties and to place the interests of our clients above our own. To sell the average consumer a home during 2004-present in my market without disclosing the rampant fraud was a huge breach of fiduciary duty. In fact, knowing the emotional attachment clients have with the American Dream of Homeownership; even with full disclosure was questionable.

    I had been writing to legislators, regulators, law enforcement for years about the rampant fraud, but NOTHING was done.

    http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/federal//2005/05comguide.html
    #20

    http://www.michaelblomquist.com/complaint/complaint%20exhibits.htm#b

    This was a criminal conspiracy by the Lenders, I-banks and credit rating agencies (NRSROs) and they should be held accountable.

    Was the movie 21/book an accurate portrayal of your life at that time?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Semyon and Michael, few comments:

    First, go MIT! (I attended myself). Second, I myself was/am in the money management business and would like to comment generally and specifically to your assertion(s):
    (1) Overall, I agree with your assertion. Not only that, smart/experienced money managers are aware of the "Martingale system", though we usually see it really, as a specific form poor risk management, self control.
    (2) One of your supporting points, that money managers "don't risk their own money" is actually not always true; in fact, over the long term, a necessary but not sufficient condition for investment success is exactly that money managers have "skin in the game." You'll find that the more well-regarded and quietly successful investors within investment circles, in many cases, have significant skin in the game. Furthermore, many of these successful investors compensation is structured such that they don't earn a fee unless they return more than a certain minimum %, what is called a "high water mark" in investor parlance.

    (3) To comment on Michael Blomquist's points: it's one thing to say that fraud, greed, and incompetence were contributing factors, and another to say that they played a GREATER role than the invisible martingale incentive structure. Michael's perspective, as I see it, is clearly biased by his background, which he disclosed openly to his credit. Those factors he brings up, might have played a greater role in the real estate brokerage world(both residential and commercial) than they did on wall street. I would look simply at the average academic credentials of your average wall street professional vs. your average real estate professional as a corroborating point. Said differently, if a smart man can make serious mistakes, then what of the average man? The dumb man? To use an "investment" example, Warren Buffett, David Swensen, David Einhorn, and AQR Capital Management (money managers that are quite respected in the investment world, both for performance and integrity) all experienced unrealized losses in 2008, around 15-30 percent. These are the smart guys (who long term, I believe will continue to do fine). The average and dumb investors have fared, as you can imagine, not as well.

    4) Fraud, greed, and incompetence - one could actually argue that the martingale system is what causes these in the first place, or that it amplifies the negative consequences of those factors...do you follow me on the circularity? By the way, reality is often circular...the chicken came before the egg which came before the chicken, etc.

    4) I hate to say it, but history usually contradicts those who simply blame some major catastrophe/fiasco (i.e., the current financial meltdown) to some kind of orchestrated "conspiracy." It's one thing to say they played a negative role, and another to say they knowingly, in the aggregate, orchestrated this. Conspiracies try to give comfort to people who want a simple, causal understanding of reality (y occurred because of x).
    5) Michael, sorry to hear that you had to close your office. Ironically, however, the fact you did (and I regard you as one of the smart and honest real estate guys), actually corroborates Semyon's points, as he stated that a unintended negative consequence of a Martingale system is that it drives out the intelligent/honest players to the sidelines, as the marginal return (so in your case, extra business) is not proportional to the marginal risk (risk defined here as the explicit lost $ opportunity as well as risk of reputational harm).
    6) Actually, people are suing, left and right. The fact you have repeatedly written about fraud to the government without any success doesn't surprise me. Think Madoff. Longer term, if people like you are not heard and recognized, are country is going down the drain. Good luck, by the way.
    7) Now, here are my 2 cents: I personally think the reasons you gave, Michael, matter. I don't know if they matter less or more than Martingale incentivization and other factors. However, I would argue that Semyon's point about Martingale systems is less known and recognized than the contributing factors you brought up. The danger, as I believe Semyon is saying, is precisely this, that many people in power in both the private and public sectors, don't know about this. Even worse, some know it, and embrace it in the wrong way.
    8) Something neither of you brought up explicitly (though Michael you did imply it) is the government. I can forgive incompetency and even fraud/corruption/theft. What's hard for me to make sense of is the self-righteousness of many in government who point fingers (many times at the very people who are actually heros, like short sellers) at everyone except themselves!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Just to followup on my comments: I disagree that eliminating money management is 'a' or 'the' solution. Here is how I think we should approach this problem: human nature is human nature. There is nothing new under the sun, people have lied, been greedy, etc. and will continue to do so. Some would propose that we try to stem bad behavior, ban intentions. Good luck, but I don't think it'll work. The best we can do, is lessen the risk of harm to many, due to the mistakes of a few... also called 'systemic risk'. Specifically, here are few ideas (by the way, I'm not original here; I'm merely echoing the views of peple like Buffett, Einhorn,etc) (1) Increase capital/equity minimum amounts in banks, which is definitionally reducing leverage (leverage, as I see it, is a martingale system) (2) structure CEO/senior managements so their fortunes are tied with LONG-TERM returns on capital versus cost of capital, as well as returns on capital in excess of competitors...this way, even in bad times, the good managers get what they deserve. (3) reduce investment banks' compensation as % of revenue (it's currently around 50%), where the extra funds goes towards 'reserving' for bad times and for future bonus compensation (this is a variation of previous suggestion). (4) similar requirements for the government, though I acknowledge this is me being more an idealist, more than anything (5) regulate and create an exchange for credit default swaps

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good post - meaningful comments.

    The way thing stand now, a money manager has an incentive to choose (consciously or not) an investment strategy which brings moderate returns (and handsome fees to the manager) for a few years, then leads to a big loss (which will be shrugged off by the manager).

    A different system will have to be devised whereas managers' (and other middlemen's) compensation will be more tightly tied to long-term well-being of investors, rather than to short-term results.

    I think some clues could be found in the life insurance industry where agents that sell whole life policies are only paid residuals for as long as their customers keep paying the policy premium (unlike mortgage brokers who get their commissions up front regardless of whether the borrower will be making payments on the note).

    Another clue from life insurance industries that might be useful is introducing the traditional notion of insurable interest to credit default swaps markets. Buying a CDS for the amount at risk should be a legimate tool for lender who clearly has an insurable interest in borrower not defaulting; but side bets (or bets larger the the at-risk capital) should not be allowed, as we do not allow buying life insurance policies on lives of strangers or neighbors.

    ReplyDelete
  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Piterburg: I appreciated your comments and I find them valuable. So a question I've had in mind before this financial mess is (I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think there is a 'silver bullet' or an easy solution without foreseeable as well as unpredictable tradeoffs): Starting with the money manager example, how does one, without legal/government intervention, not only encourage but get results where 'fair/equitable' (i.e., kinda like what you're talking about) compensation is the norm rather than the exception? A more general question is how does one do this for all kinds of compensation and performance measurement? So for senior management pay, for broker compensation (perhaps even for investment banking fees, since they're basically brokers), politicans, etc.? I think more rules/regulation may or may not be the way to go. What concerns me is that some people with power, at least publicly, call for more regulation...are they saying this because they want to solve the problem or for political victory, votes, etc?

    One specific comment: I wonder if it's a coincidence that Warren Buffett who has become rich via a fair compensation structure, happens to be in the insurance business...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hmm...I have never heard it called the Martingale system. I just always called it the trader's death spiral. Either way this is certainly what brought down LTCM. Initially I figured that is what happened to Madoff but apparently he didn’t make a single trade. But I am hard pressed to see it as a major contributing factor in this mess. Leveraging up and doubling down can occur at the same time but it does not always follow that they will. The major contributing factor was a matter of real estate prices that got away from fundamentals, such as income and savings, due to the willingness of lenders to lower credit standards and of consumers across the developed world to leverage up and fund consumption off balance sheet growth.

    What you cited as the bull market trend of – to the lowest common denominator goes the spoils – is certainly true but I don’t think that comparable to doubling down on losing trades. It’s a perpetual problem for fund managers in any bull market. But like any other business you have to do what is right for the long term viability of your business. The funds that played that game are now the ones closing down. Certainly some funds that don’t play the game wind up closing down like Julian Robertson during the tech bubble but it is not the reality that all conservatively run funds will wind up closing down during periods of irrational exuberance. I think the most recent example that I can think of is the firing of Morgan Stanley’s CEO Phil Purcell in 2005 because he didn’t push the firm aggressively enough into all these high-growth, high-margin structured products.

    Of course with any financial crisis it is difficult to point to a single factor as the only reason for the distress. But the problem could have only gotten as big as it did because there were multiple breakdowns across the whole chain. Certainly faulty risk models contributed. Government contributed by pushing Freddie and Fannie into targeted lending to sub prime borrowers. Greenspan gets part of the blame for his easy money policies. The trade policies of most Asian countries helped contribute by keeping rates low in the West which helped encourage increased household leverage. Shady mortgage brokers and speculators exacerbated the cycle. Anyone who had commissions tied to volumes didn't have any incentive to slow the money train by acknowledging the associated risks – the greedy banker meme. Moody's and S&P certainly helped by creating a rating arbitrage opportunity for the sell side.

    Longer-term trends certainly didn’t help. The history of financial innovation over the last 20 years or so is the history of arguments made as to why the risk of holding more debt has gone down. Starting with junk bonds and LBOs, PE supposedly arbing the spread between debt and equity risk premiums, CDOs, swaps, etc, etc.

    We are now going through the difficult process of de-leveraging and there is no monetary policy or fiscal stimulus that will make the process painless. The end of it will be when the market finds a level of leverage it is comfortable with. Apparently 3Q last year American households actually paid down their debts for the first time since 1952 when the data was first recorded. Jeremy Grantham at GMO thinks it will require around $20 trillion in asset write-downs to put us back at comfortable level. I think that estimate is a little over the top but there is certainly solid logic to his view given that growth in assets values over the last 10 years was highly correlated to growth in debt.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Is there a benefit to allowing insurance on an asset to exceed the value of the asset? Isn't that supposed to be the difference between insurance and betting?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Some say that this initially credit crisis turned into a deep and world wide economic crisis will change the very fundamentals of our economies.

    Here is an idea to think about. If someone had deposited one dollar into a bank account 2000 years ago for a 2 per cent interest rate only, that deposit would be worth 1,5 raised to the 17th power (an incomprehensibly high amount of money) today. All this means that the idea of interest, the price or cost of money, is in itself nonsensical, or at least unsustainable in the long run. Why do we expect an economy based on an unsustainable principle to function???

    The very best explanation of the crisis I have seen is this one: http://whyhypeblog.blogspot.com/2009/02/crisis-of-credit-visualized.html

    ReplyDelete
  12. >>In the 80's the emerging Martingales were called junk bonds and LBO's. In more recent times they are known as mortgage backed securities and
    credit default swaps. You can regulate mortgages half to death<<

    This analysis presupposes that mortgage backed securities and credit default swaps were creations of market forces to begin with -- they are not. They are all part of government attemps to subsidize a certain part of living, hence they did not come about from market "needs". They are part of the so-called "American dream" where you own a suburban house, drive a car fueled by cheap gas. The fact that as of 2006 there were 18 MILLION unoccupied houses goes to show how demand/supply failed to work miserably on something as tangible as a house. Stuff is broken, but we need to way deeper to fix the problem. We should not cure with the sympoms, we should analyze the cause.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Great article. Thought provoking. Accurate. Sad. Depressing. One of those truths that no one knows. It is maddening that we must learn the same lessons over & over & over & over. I just do not understand how short people's memories & lives are.

    I am seeing red that my daughter's schooling & lives have been damaged by these stupid evil greedy people.

    I would like to paraphrase this to the extreme: greedy people suck.

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  17. Your blog made my head swim.Personally, I believe that our species survives upon a constant renewal. Pedator/prey cycle that cannot avoid the extremes.Not even economies based upon "other-than-Keynesian-economics" have escaped.Feudalism is but the long term investment of our species...and that also crashes before fresh cyclic energy.Madoff, for example, was really a hero...his system completely honest (based upon his cultural imperative). When the system collapsed it took him down. Up until then his clients did quite well!!! Using the system is a sin? Right now the system is being used...just by bigger fish than him! But are they exempt? A simple virus (such a tiny creature)can take anyone down. Those who would somehow control international monetary mood swings by knocking down national fire walls are themselves in a crap game of martingale proportions.Not secure at all.Worth the gamble? Why of course...since working the system also allows for great opportunity to create and better humanities sad plight. So it might collapse...there is just something exciting about thoughts of such martyrdom. John D. R. used his wealth to help bring under control deseases that had frozen continents in sorrow and superstition.That alone legitimizes international banking.The G8 has committed to helping Africa...a wonderful thing.My hope is that our national culture is Christian enough to survive whatever happens. Western Civilization (with all its detractors)has done some wonderful things. For instance! Who would have thunk that Jesus could do away with slavery? And all those horrid deseases! And tied the world's distant tribes together in one communication/technological "community".

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